Couture An Underdog, Great Pick For UFC 74

As the events surrounding UFC bouts draw near, odds on the event typically settle down from their previously erratic manner. However, the odds on the Randy Couture-Gabriel Gonzaga fight have been relatively steady all along... and not in favor of "The Natural." I was surprised when I initially saw that Couture was a +105 underdog and Gonzaga was a -130 favorite (source: 5dimes.com), but I assumed that this would even out as we neared the event and we got further away from the shock of Gonzaga's win over Cro Cop. Weeks later, and I stand corrected. It seems that a Cro Cop knockout carries my cache than I thought. As such, it appears that these will be the final lines heading into the event. And if they are, my suggestion is bet, bet, bet!

Gonzaga is the younger fighter and he is getting better, but I just don't think he's anywhere nearly as skilled as Couture. Whether he fought in K-1, Shooto Brazil, or the UFC, Gonzaga has never gone past the third round. The much more experienced Couture, on the other hand, routinely grounds and pounds for 25 minutes straight. If the fight goes past the third round, expect Gonzaga to gas and Couture to come into his own. Randy Couture spent the last round of his fight against "Cardio Master" Tito Ortiz at UFC 44 smashing him into the ground and at one point, spanking him.

This would lead one to believe that if the fight is going to end, it'll have to be done in a shocking and quick manner, similar to the Cro Cop fight. Despite my belief that Couture will prevail, it should be noted that Gonzaga has NEVER let a fight reach a decision, lending more credence to the belief that Gonzaga's only shot is an early victory. However, I don't think Couture will let the fight end early and will instead confuse and frustrate the Brazilian. I expect Gonzaga to be tentative early, similar to his UFC 56 fight against Kevin Jordan, which will open himself up for an early Couture takedown (see: Couture-Sylvia). Couture must be careful here, as Gonzaga is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizard, but he should be able to offer effective strikes while being mindful of Gonzaga's masterful guard.

To recap, I don't see anyway that Gonzaga wins this. If "Napao" tries to finish Couture early, he'll get taken down and pounded. If Gonzaga chooses to feel Couture out a little longer, he'll get gas towards the end, make a mistake, and pay for it. As a result, this underdog money is an excellent bet. I know I'll be taking the money on Couture. I've seen him dominate and fight perfectly too many times to think that Gonzaga has a shot in hell. Of course, I said the same thing about Georges St. Pierre and Matt Serra...